What happened on 28 February 2026?
US and Israeli forces launched Operation Epic Fury against Iran, with nearly 900 strikes in the first 12 hours. Iran responded by disrupting shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most critical oil transit chokepoints. The immediate effect was a surge in global oil prices, with Brent crude jumping from $73 to over $80 per barrel within days. By mid-March it had hit $120, a 65% increase. UK pump prices followed within a week.
20%
of all global oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz. Its disruption cut roughly 10 million barrels per day from global supply.
How does the Strait of Hormuz affect UK fuel prices?
The UK imports approximately 40% of its crude oil. When 20% of global supply is threatened, prices rise everywhere, regardless of where the oil was originally heading. The International Energy Agency called this the largest supply disruption in oil market history. UK wholesale prices followed global markets, and forecourt prices rose by 12p per litre for petrol and 25p for diesel within the first three weeks of March alone. The RAC Foundation estimates UK drivers spent an extra £307 million on fuel in just the first few days after prices jumped.
+20.2p
Petrol increase per litre since the war
+39.1p
Diesel increase per litre since the war
65%
Brent crude oil surge ($73 to $120/barrel)
How much has Brent crude oil increased?
Brent crude was trading at around $73 per barrel on 27 February. It surged to $120 by 9 March, a 65% increase in under two weeks. Although it has since settled to around $100 per barrel following ceasefire talks in early April, analysts suggest it is unlikely to return to pre-war levels of $73-75 for at least a year. Markets remain cautious because supply chain disruptions take months to unwind, even after a political resolution.